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Developing quantitative & mathematical modelsfor prediction and event markets

POK Capital

A high-frequency quantitative trading firm. We run systematic strategies in prediction and event markets, on infrastructure built in-house for speed and control.

01 · Firm

We trade our own book.

Illustrative · synthetic market data

POK Capital is a high-frequency quantitative trading firm, founded in 2025. We deploy proprietary capital in exchange-traded prediction and event markets. If you are interested in working with us, we welcome inquiries at pokcapital@gmail.com.

We operate on Kalshi and Polymarket US, and follow prediction markets broadly as the asset class matures. Prices in these markets are probabilities, and we treat them with the rigor that implies.

We are a small team and intend to remain one. Every component that touches an order was built in-house: the only way to know with certainty how the system behaves at four in the morning, unattended.

Founded
2025
Capital
Own balance sheet only
Venues
Kalshi · Polymarket US
Based
California & Ohio

02 · Strategy

We do not predict. We price.

Our strategies are systematic, market-neutral and short-horizon. Models price a large number of markets continuously; when a price on the screen disagrees with a price in the model by more than the cost of trading, the system acts — at machine speed, in bounded size. We hold no directional view on any outcome.

Illustrative · synthetic market data

01

Systematic end to end

Pricing, sizing and execution are decided by the system, under rules written before the market opened. Discretion is reserved for turning it off.

02

Market-neutral by design

We hold no view on who wins. Returns come from pricing and execution, not prediction.

03

The bar is a number

The system declines most of what it sees. Edge is thin and short-lived, so the decision to trade is arithmetic rather than judgment.

03 · Platform

We built the whole stack.

Market data, pricing, execution and reconciliation are all ours. Not as a matter of pride: the edge lives in the gap between seeing a price and holding the position, and that gap cannot be outsourced.

DataDirect venue connectivity, normalized and timestamped
PricingModel prices computed net of fees and expected slippage
ExecutionLow-latency order placement with risk checks in the critical path
ReconciliationFills and settlements matched to venue truth

04 · Risk

Most of the code is there to stop us.

Every order passes limits written before the market opened. The important part of the system is not the part that trades; it is the part that decides not to.

Illustrative · synthetic market data

01

Limits live in the code

Per-order, per-event and firm-wide caps, enforced before anything reaches a venue rather than reported after the fact.

02

It stops itself

When the system encounters conditions it does not recognize, it stands down and alerts the team rather than trading through them.

03

Exposure is bounded

Net exposure is measured continuously and held within hard caps. We do not carry risk we have not chosen.

04

Reconciled against the venue

Every position is reconciled against venue records through settlement. Discrepancies are treated as incidents, not noise.